February 26, 2025
The Cultural Cycle Is Upon Us Again
By Glenn Spitzer

“May you live in interesting times.” — Ancient Chinese proverb

What is happening right now? Why are we dismantling or reconfiguring governmental institutions at a pace not seen in 80 to 90 years?

All of this is actually quite normal. The Romans called this cultural cycle a saeculum, which refers to a period about as long as a human life (80–90 years). In modern times, we refer to these cycles as “turnings,” a term popularized by demographers William Strauss and Neil Howe. A turning is approximately 22 years, and the fourth turning is one in which there is radical social upheaval. We are plainly in a fourth turning right now.

Fourth turnings often (but not necessarily) resolve in violent revolution. The last fourth turning resulted in World War II; the one before that resulted in the Civil War; the one before that resulted in the Revolutionary War and establishment of the Constitution; and the one before that resulted in the Glorious Revolution. The cycles repeat throughout history like clockwork—as predictable as human nature.

But the last fourth turning did not result in violent revolution within the United States. We were likely spared in large part because of the stabilizing effect of the Constitution. Moreover, we did experience a war. Fourth turnings are periods where the hostilities between competing factions build to a crescendo, and then resolve in such a way that the population has no more tolerance for discord (the transition into the first turning—the rebirth). Unfortunately, humans typically only reach this point after a hot conflict.

Though we did not see violence on U.S. soil, we did experience a revolution in terms of the establishment of government institutions under FDR—which carried into the 1960s (Johnson’s “Great Society” welfare programs) and beyond. The defining characteristic of a fourth turning is the destruction or major reconfiguration of those institutions that no longer serve their intended purpose or for which there is no longer a need. And now again, with President Trump’s first few months in office, we are seeing radical changes to institutions with lightning speed.

It’s no coincidence that these cultural revolutions coincide with long economic debt cycles. Revolutions typically coincide with debt burdens that exceed 100% of a nation’s gross domestic product. While the U.S. exceeded 100% debt to GDP for a short period during WWII, the debt fell back to manageable levels after the war (dropping to 31% by 1981). But now, as a result of our ineffective institutions, our debt burden has spiraled out of control (over $36 trillion and over $100,000 per person) and is consistently above 100% of GDP. Many now recognize that the United States will cease to exist unless we address this debt issue with urgency.

A new populist majority has finally had enough, and its leaders are unafraid to exert political will to make radical changes. This populist majority appears to want to swing a wrecking ball into these dysfunctional institutions. The Democrat party, the only viable opposition, is desperately trying to defend these dysfunctional institutions—predominantly because it relies on these dysfunctional institutions for its very survival.

This old guard seeks to defend what the majority sees as indefensible. The old guard argues for open borders and transgenderism, while arguing against government audits, efficiency, and accountability. However, the majority is clearly demanding change and losing patience with the old guard.

A recent poll from Quinnipiac, a left leaning pollster, found that only 31% of Americans support the Democrat party, which has come to represent these failed institutions. This is the lowest support for the Democrat party since these polls began.

USAID is a perfect example of the split between the old guard and the new majority. While Democrat politicians scream like stuck pigs over the attacks on USAID, those of us who formerly considered ourselves Democrats see the rot plainly and have disdain for it. And this disconnect is why the Democrat party continues to hemorrhage voters.

It’s obscene to most of us that Democrat politicians would dare support USAID. Forget about the millions from USAID spent overseas on sex-change operations, transgender operas in Columbia, transgender comic books in Peru, studies to determine cocaine impacts on Chihuahuas—these are mere distractions. The real issue is that institutions like these have zero accountability and spend tens of billions of dollars to prop up a corrupt and unaccountable bureaucracy against the express will of the people who pay for them.

USAID spent several millions of dollars to support propaganda media, both foreign and domestic. The propaganda is used to push wars on the American people and to cause regime changes abroad. There is zero transparency. Whether we want to believe it or not, humans have a herd mentality, and when we are told to believe something from a seemingly reputable media outlet, we believe it. But now the curtain has been pulled back and the deception will no longer be tolerated. The message is clear: the lying needs to stop.

USAID has been exposed as a CIA slush fund. We’ve learned that our government spent billions of dollars without our knowledge to facilitate the invasion of our country by tens of millions of illegal aliens. It spent tens of billions in Ukraine to fund things that no American would support – like paying the salaries of wealthy Ukrainian bureaucrats and propping up their pensions.

We are finally starting to understand why we are in a death spiral of debt. But more importantly, we are finally starting to understand that the problem can be addressed with practical solutions. And most importantly, we are finally exerting political will to address the obviously dysfunctional institutions that are at the root of the problem. And because of the overwhelming popular support, we should be able to do this without violent upheaval. Time will tell.